Investigations

California high-speed rail reached $15 billion without opening passenger service

The rail authority authorized a $537.3 million contractor settlement in January as Phase I cost estimates climbed past $231 billion.

In California's Central Valley, eighteen years after voters approved a Los Angeles-to-San Francisco bullet train, the state has spent roughly $15 billion on elevated guideways and roadbed without opening a mile of high-speed passenger service. YouTuber Nick Shirley reported from the alignment in a video posted Sept. 15, 2026.

Proposition 1A in 2008 promised a statewide system for about $33 billion. The California High-Speed Rail Authority shifted focus to a Merced-to-Bakersfield starter segment and reported cumulative spending of about $15.16 billion in a December 2025 finance update. A 2026 business plan errata table estimated full Phase I scope at $231.3 billion using current bottom-up methods, far above the $89 billion to $128 billion range in the 2024 business plan.

Shirley walked unfinished overpasses that locals liken to a Central Valley Stonehenge of concrete and rebar. A city manager told him governments usually buy an entire alignment before development, yet builders were erecting houses on the planned route while the authority offered sparse updates. In an almond orchard, a farmer said century-old ranches would be cut in two and that the 2008 ballot language left voters guessing where the line would run.

The team found no designated high-speed rail site in Los Angeles. Near Fresno, security guards ordered Shirley off property at a track yard and could not name a future hub. In Sacramento he entered the authority's public office after 4 p.m., found the lobby empty, and then questioned State Senator Dave Cortese on the Capitol grounds.

Cortese chairs the Senate Transportation Committee and helped secure legislation dedicating $1 billion a year in cap-and-trade money to the project through 2045. Shirley asked whether the line would ever connect San Francisco and Los Angeles. Cortese said the work is happening, that 21 construction projects are active, and that finishing in twenty years might or might not occur.

As lieutenant governor in 2014, Gavin Newsom told an interviewer that the facts seem overwhelming that the project is not going to materialize in our lifetime. Shirley's report pairs that remark with current construction stubs and delay payouts.

On Jan. 21, 2026, the authority board voted 7-0 to authorize a settlement change order of up to $537.3 million with Dragados Flatiron Joint Venture over disputed change orders on a 65-mile Central Valley design-build contract. The Legislature approved the $1 billion annual funding stream through 2045 in September 2025, an agreement Cortese promoted as transportation chair.

The authority's December 2025 expenditure report lists $15.16 billion in cumulative outlays while the Merced-to-Bakersfield segment alone carries a $35.3 billion construction budget in state analyst summaries. No date for Los Angeles-to-San Francisco service appears in the current published schedule.

Source video: Investigating California's High Speed Rail